World War III - The Chips War

Word Count - 2968

Setting the Stage

Long before the first shot was fired in what would become known as “The Chips War” - World War III. For years, the United States and its allies had failed to grasp a fundamental truth about the Chinese Communist Party (CCP): its greatest fear was not the West, but rather its own people.

It began seven years earlier, with a virus, a microscopic foe that swept across the globe with unprecedented ferocity, leaving death, fear and dislocation in its wake. COVID-19, as it came to be known, not only claimed millions of lives but also laid bare the vulnerabilities of the modern world, global supply chains and single supplier arrangements.

But how is a pandemic related to a World War seven years later? The answer lies in the tangled web of interdependence that characterized the global economy. China, the epicenter of the outbreak, not only faced the brunt of the virus's impact but also found itself at the center of a geopolitical storm. As accusations flew and blame was apportioned, China's response to the crisis set off a chain reaction that would reverberate for years to come.

Many of the young men who would later find themselves on the front lines of World War III were, prior to the pandemic, or would have been, after the pandemic, employed in factories churning out products for the West. However, China's initial denial of the virus and subsequent demonstration of the West's vulnerability to disruptions in its supply chains dealt a crippling blow to its reputation as a reliable trading partner. Critical commodities such as rare earth elements, surgical masks, and computer chips, upon which the West was heavily reliant, suddenly became scarce or unavailable.

The decision to diversify, by the West, was not merely a strategic one; it was a logical response to China's actions, a recognition of the need to reduce dependency on a single supplier and mitigate the risks inherent in such reliance. The West began to diversify its supply chains, investing capital and expertise in countries like India and Vietnam. These nations, once on the periphery of global manufacturing, now found themselves at the forefront, providing employment opportunities for millions of young men, in those countries, jobs that would have previously employed young men in China.

The repercussions of China's mishandling of the pandemic, combined with the West's failure to anticipate the consequences of moving its supply chains, cannot be overstated. What was “Simply business” translates to a Chinese unemployment rate of 16.7% over a population exceeding 130 million men aged 18-35, which left 21.7 million young men unemployed, made the CCP's decision to unleash the forces of war both inevitable and, in hindsight, unsurprising.

The failure to conceive this series of dominos, adds to a long and ignoble list of intelligence and policy failures attributable to the West, and serves as a sobering reminder of the fragility of the global order and the need for vigilance in the face of emerging threats.

Unnoticed by Western policymakers, was the historical fact that rulers around the world had long relied on a time-tested strategy to quell internal unrest: send young, unmarried men off to war. Across the globe the elite had employed this elegant solution to address the perennial problem of unemployment and unrest among young male subjects. By redirecting the energies of disaffected youth towards external conflicts, rulers could simultaneously silence dissent at home and expand their influence abroad. It was no different in China; seven dynasties over 2000 years had employed this strategy and sometimes it had worked, and sometimes it resulted in the emergence of a new dynasty. Like other dynasties before it, the CCP saw in war a means to restore order and assert its authority. Rather than face the riots and strife associated with failed policies internally, they meant to use war to focus those energies “more productively” on external enemies. That it had taken China’s premier as long as it did to arrive at this course of action was the only thing that should have been surprising.

Once the decision was taken, the war began, before it began. Shaping operations launched by Chinese hackers broke into various parts of the American electric grid infrastructure. They estimated that Americans would not want to wage a war to protect Taiwan if they didn’t have electricity for air conditioning and refrigeration. Seemingly unrelated, the transfer station that managed the flow of electricity from a hydroelectric dam in the Rockies to California on a hot day in August suddenly malfunctioned. The resulting cascade of trips would take power offline for seven days in parts of California, the response would tell the Chinese a great deal.

2) Opening Moves

Day 1

Estimates suggest that China suffered a staggering loss of 500,000 men on the first day of the conflict—a catastrophic toll by any measure. Yet, within the calculus of war, such losses were deemed “acceptable” for a nation boasting an army of 15 million. What may have been called a "meat wave" by the Russians or the Ukranians, was simply pragmatic for the Chinese. But, the sheer magnitude of casualties underscored the brutal calculus of modern warfare. However, for China, the pressing question had always been: how to overcome the formidable barrier posed by the straits separating the mainland from Taiwan?

Traditionally, the transit of 90 miles across the straits took somewhere between two and five hours —a perilous window during which invading forces were vulnerable to detection by American satellites and relentless barrages from Taiwan's formidable arsenal of missiles and artillery. The solution, however, lay in a bold and audacious strategy reminiscent of the legendary evacuation of Dunkirk, albeit in reverse.

China's initial invasion force was dispersed across a motley armada of vessels ranging from hydrofoils and fishing boats to cargo ships—a flotilla numbering 12,000 in total. These vessels were hastily loaded with men and light arms, their decks teeming with “soldiers”, poorly trained, but primed for battle. Despite the staggering losses suffered on the first day, the weight of numbers drove the relentless onslaught forward. The result was a successful landing of 1,000,000 troops on Taiwanese soil—a feat achieved within a single day.

At the same time, half a world away, the entire West Coast, the northern East coast and northern midwest experienced “coincidental” power outages. Four different trains collided in two strategic locations damaging the only two north / south lines servicing the Eastern seaboard.

Day 2

Meanwhile, as Day 2 of the conflict dawned, the Chinese military executed a bold and devastating strike against the heart of the forward positioned United States Carrier group. Hypersonic anti-ship cruise missiles, launched from strategically positioned coastal batteries, streaked through the skies with lethal precision, homing in on their target with deadly accuracy. In a thunderous explosion of fire and steel, the flagship of the American fleet—the aircraft carrier—was struck, its decks engulfed in flames as it listed ominously to one side.

The loss of the carrier dealt a crippling blow to American naval supremacy in the region, forcing the remaining vessels of the Carrier group to retreat hastily, their mission compromised, and their resolve tested. With the carrier out of action and the American fleet reeling, the Chinese seized the initiative, pressing their advantage and asserting dominance over the waters surrounding Taiwan.

But even in retreat, the American forces were not without recourse. As the Carrier group regrouped and plotted its next move, the President issued a fateful order to the escort ships accompanying the stricken carrier. With grim determination, the destroyer and two frigates launched a salvo of over 120 Tomahawk cruise missiles—a devastating barrage aimed not at military targets, but at the vital infrastructure which China coveted, the ability to make state of the art chips and with them to control the engines that drove AI.

Spread across Taiwan like jewels in a crown, seven chip fabs stood as bastions of cutting-edge technology, producing the microchips upon which modern civilization depended. With surgical precision, the missiles streaked towards their targets, their explosive payloads unleashing destruction upon the sprawling complexes below.

In a matter of minutes, the chip fabs were reduced to smoldering ruins, their once-gleaming facilities reduced to rubble and ash. The loss dealt a severe blow to China's reason to covet Taiwan, its technological capabilities. This attack immediately, disrupted supply chains and changed the calculus of who would control AI for the next two decades.

As the smoke cleared and the echoes of the missile strike faded into the distance, the balance of power in the Pacific shifted once more. The carrier group may have been dealt a crippling blow, but the strategic ingenuity and unwavering resolve of the American forces ensured that the cost of victory would be steep for both sides in the escalating conflict. And as the naval saga unfolded, the true toll of war would become increasingly apparent, casting a shadow over the economic fate of nations and the future of the world.

America had offensive hackers of its own. And on day two the floodgates of the Three Gorges Dam stuck open, flooding towns and killing hundreds of thousands, while at the same time its electricity distribution system overloaded and took with it 10% of China’s generating capacity. A message was being sent, “We will send you back to the stone age” and like nuclear weapons, suddenly hacking your opponent became unthinkable.

Day 3

As the sun rose on the third day of the conflict, the Chinese military unleashed a devastating assault that sent shockwaves reverberating across the globe. In a calculated act of aggression, three nuclear weapons were launched into the vast expanse of space, their trajectories carefully calibrated to intersect with the orbits of crucial US satellites.

With a blinding flash of light, the nuclear warheads detonated high above the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, unleashing a cataclysmic wave of electromagnetic energy that rippled through the heavens. The targeted satellites, including those comprising the vital Keyhole reconnaissance system and the Global Positioning System (GPS), bore the brunt of the onslaught, their delicate electronics overwhelmed by the ferocity of the blast.

Though the attacks were not perfect, they achieved their intended objective: the degradation of America's observation and guidance capabilities. Across the globe, military commanders and civilian leaders alike watched in horror as vital communication links faltered, surveillance imagery flickered and faded, and the guiding hand of GPS faltered and wavered.

In the blink of an eye, the carefully orchestrated dance of modern warfare was thrown into disarray, as the fog of uncertainty descended upon the battlefield. With the loss of critical satellite assets, the American military found itself grappling with a newfound vulnerability, its ability to surveil and navigate compromised in a way only barely imagined.

Yet, even as the dust settled and the scale of the devastation became clear, the resolve of the American forces remained unbroken. In the crucible of conflict, innovation and adaptability emerged as the hallmarks of survival, as the United States Navy and its allies scrambled to regroup and respond to the ever-evolving threat posed by an emboldened China.

As the naval saga unfolded, the true cost of war became increasingly apparent, casting a shadow over the fate of nations and the future of the world. In the face of unprecedented challenges and unfathomable sacrifices, the men and women of the Navy stood ready to confront whatever trials lay ahead, their courage and determination serving as beacons of hope in a world teetering on the brink of darkness.

Day 5

By Day 5, a staggering 5,000,000 Chinese troops would be successfully landed on Taiwanese shores—a testament to the efficacy of China's unconventional approach and the sheer scale of its military might. Yet, even as the invasion force swelled in size, the conflict had only just begun, with both sides bracing for the inevitable escalation of hostilities and the unfolding of a naval saga that would shape the course of history.

3) The American Response

Day 14

As tensions simmered and the world braced for the inevitable continuation of conflict, the stage was set for a gambit that would forever alter the course of history. It was a trap from the outset, meticulously orchestrated by the Americans to maintain its dominance in the strategic waters of the Indo-Pacific region, destroy China’s naval capabilities and enable a blockade of the Malacca Straits and the Chinese mainland, bringing famine to the populace and starve the Chinese economy of its lifeblood, oil.

It began with a seemingly innocuous request to the Indian Navy: allow the Chinese to see India sailing a meaningful portion of its Navy to the Straits of Malacca, a vital artery of global commerce and natural bottleneck for 75% of Chinese trade. Unbeknownst to Indian naval commanders, this seemingly routine maneuver was intended to provoke a significant response from the Chinese Navy, setting the stage for a larger confrontation.

The US had two aircraft carriers strategically positioned in the Indian Ocean and another stationed in the Pacific east of New Zealand, all seemingly reluctant to engage for fear of Chinese hypersonic missiles, the stage was set for a confrontation of unprecedented scale.

Believing the U.S. had little appetite to engage its carriers and risk their damage/destruction at the hands of their now proven hypersonic missiles, and sensing an opportunity to secure their ability to import crucial resources and expand their sphere of influence, the Chinese Navy sallied forth in full force. Their objective: to teach the Indians a lesson and secure territory in Singapore and Malaysia, from which they could install land-based hypersonic missile batteries to further expand the no-go envelope they had imposed on the Americans.

Unbeknownst to the Chinese Navy as it surged towards the Straits of Malacca, the United States had developed a game-changing weapon in its arsenal: the Independent Drone Torpedo Carrier (iDTC). A technological marvel, the iDTC was an unmanned drone capable of swimming from its Trident Submarine mothership with seven advanced capability (ADCAP) torpedoes, travel over 250 miles independently, and lay in wait for its target. This platform was staggeringly more useful than static mines. It could dive to 1500 feet, it used terrain mapping for guidance and was thus immune to GPS denial and could be directed remotely using extremely low frequency (ELF) radio waves.

In a bold and calculated move, the USS Michigan had launched a staggering 44 iDTCs just two days prior, with a total of 308 Mk48 ADCAP torpedoes. As the Chinese fleet approached the mouth of the straits, the estimated time for the iDTC attack was set for 0318 Lima, precisely when the Chinese were expected to be at their most vulnerable.

But the iDTCs were not the only surprise awaiting the Chinese Navy. Three SpaceX Starships, each carrying their maximum weight capacity of Tomahawk missiles (TASM variant), Were launched from the United States, and were even now unleashing a devastating barrage of firepower upon the advancing fleet. With a total payload of 309 Tomahawk missiles (103 missiles per Starship), the “Mother of All Hypersonic Weapons” could carry as many cruise missiles as “sub-munitions” as an Aegis Destroyer and be anywhere in the world in less than 90 minutes from launch. The combined sub-surface and space/air attack from the Americans was swift, decisive, and overwhelming.

As the Chinese fleet sailed inexorably towards the straits, unaware of the impending onslaught, the American autonomous drones lay in wait, their weapons poised to strike with deadly precision. In five minutes, it was over and the Chinese, Navy, was at the bottom of the sea. It had taken China twenty years to build that Navy. It wouldn’t soon be replaced. Most importantly to policy makers and public opinion, not one American sailor was within 1000 miles when the Chinese Navy was destroyed.

4) Conclusion

With no way to defend the Malaca Straits, and essentially no Chinese navy, the U.S was able to mine the major ports on the Chinese coast utilizing submarines and impose a blockade on oil and food and all other imports the Chinese economy depends on. In retaliation the Chinese stopped exporting rare earth elements making it difficult for the U.S. to replace the satellites that were destroyed or even the 600 weapons that were consumed to sink the Chinese fleet. But food was the most critical and rails and roads where the Chinese could import food from Russia were simply inadequate to feed 1.3 Billion people. China capitulated sixty days later.

The assumptions made for this hypothetical are:

The next war is “Come as you are” and will be over in a comparatively short period with no time to repair damaged ships and to time to replace stocks of weapons.

Drones and smart weapons with their ability to increase stand off distances and their increasing ability to think (coordinate action) will make the modern battlefield too lethal for humans.

Speed defeats point defenses (including with a bit of mirroring directed energy weapons)

Everything quickly goes air or subsurface to avoid hypersonic weapons or beyond the effective range of hypersonics. Though SpaceX Starship is a unique hypersonic mothership with Global reach in our hypothetical

Extremely low frequency and acoustics can be used to communicate with smart weapons at distance and depth.

Long range / unmanned drones become the way to engage at distance including at planetary distances.

The scale of China is misunderstood by the West. A loss of 500,000 men in a war, much less a battle would essentially be a catastrophic or unrecoverable loss for the US or NATO. For China it would simply be acceptable losses. “Quantity has a quality all its own”.

The best hope for the West is an uprising by China’s people. The best way to catalyze that is by blockading food.